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美国急速赛车彩票:China Business Fund Zhou Haidong: Investment is not hot and avoid corruption "cold"

时间:2018/5/23 19:34:10  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要: One day in mid-May,Huashang FundDeputy General Manager of Investment Management Department Zhou HaidongIn an interview with reporters, the ...

One day in mid-May, Huashang Fund Deputy General Manager of Investment Management Department Zhou Haidong In an interview with reporters, the 2017 A-share value investment is more like value conceptual investment. In fact, the value of investment in A shares has been effective, but the concept of speculation "value" will expire in 2018.

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Zhou Haidong said that it is common knowledge for professional investors to avoid hot pursuits, but some investors are at the other extreme. In Zhou Haidong's view, professional investors also avoid coveting "unusual" and "unpopular" companies. The growth of the fund manager needs to adhere to the principles of and and to abandon the "obsession" . It is not easy to change, but it is the only way to invest in success.

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Balanced configuration is very important

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Zhou Haidong believes that value investment has always been effective in A shares, but investment in "value concept" in 2018 is hardly effective, and investors need to change their concepts. He believes that the large probability of A-shares in 2018 will swing between consumption and emerging technologies.

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China Securities Journal: 20 Since the beginning of the year, there have been many disturbances in the A-share market. How should this be done in this market?

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Zhou Haidong: In the case of many disturbing factors, the equilibrium configuration is very important. My approach is to select 7-89456_33_65473_9 stocks with low correlation to spread the risk . In terms of the selection of specific stocks, it is mainly based on fundamental analysis. In terms of portfolio construction, I will select several stocks with excellent texture from SSE 50, and then choose a stock portfolio with low correlation with stocks already selected from stocks with good growth. For example, in 2018 I was optimistic about the high quality stocks in the aviation sector. We believe the overall valuation of the aviation sector is relatively low. As the competitive landscape of domestic airlines improves, the profitability of high-quality companies will continue to rise. In order to hedge the impact of oil price on the aviation sector, I will configure the airline stocks at the same time to focus on oil and gas related stocks. According to our calculations, the impact of rising oil prices on airline costs is controllable. Market sentiment tends to amplify the corresponding effects. In order to diversify risk, I still configure oil and gas stocks in the portfolio to hedge risks.

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China Securities Journal: Since 2018, since the value investment has “fell back”, how do you see this phenomenon?

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Zhou Haidong: Value investment in A shares has been working. When it was embraced in 2017, I was more inclined to think of a "value concept" investment. The value investment I understand is not simply looking at valuations. Because some companies have high valuations, the company's earnings growth can support such valuations. In return, although some companies have lower valuations, their earnings are not worthwhile and they are not worth investing. The valuation itself does not make sense. The combination of valuation and the growth rate of the company's earnings will only provide reference value.

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In addition, in addition to the low valuation and profit growth that can sustain the valuation, we believe that value investment should also focus on the economic cycle . In specific stages of the economic cycle, the opportunities available to different industries are different. At present, China has entered the mid-later period of deleveraging. At this stage, downward pressure on economic growth has gradually emerged. Under this macroeconomic background, we believe that A shares will oscillate between consumption and emerging technologies in 2018. When the market expects to be pessimistic, funds will rush into consumption; when the market expects optimism, the funds' heat on emerging technologies will rise. The factors that determine market expectations are more uncertain. Monetary policy, the influence of external factors, etc. will all affect market expectations. We believe that it is difficult to see a trend trend this year, so a balanced configuration of will be an investment strategy that can be used throughout the year. .

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美国急速赛车彩票:China_Business_Fund_Zhou_Haidong:_Investment_is_not_hot_and_avoid_corruption_"cold"

Monetary policy, influence of external factors, etc. will all affect market expectations

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Market Expected Changes to Fund Flow Change

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Be optimistic about the performance of the pharmaceutical sector

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Zhou Haidong stated that has received government support for the development of the pharmaceutical industry, and a few head companies are rising. The demand for medicines in some areas is on the rise. It can be described as a time, place, and person. High-quality pharmaceutical companies have long-term value.

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China Securities Journal: This year's pharmaceutical sector performed well. How do we look at investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical industry?

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Zhou Haidong: Needles in the pharmaceutical industry, there have been many disputes. We still prefer the investment opportunities of the rest of the year for the medical sector . Although the valuation of the medical industry is generally high, we believe that high-quality companies in the medical industry can continue to hold .

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First, the attitude of the government towards the pharmaceutical industry has undergone some changes on the margin. For the pharmaceutical industry, in the past two years, the government has mainly focused on controlling drug prices to reduce drug prices. Now it is slowly transitioning to focusing on reducing drug prices. It also pays attention to improving the quality of drugs and promoting innovation in the pharmaceutical industry, mainly reflected in the assessment of conformity and Innovative drug support.

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Second, the industry landscape of the medical industry is tending to concentrate. The first is the medical industry has a more obvious self-enhancing effect. The implementation of new drug R\u0026D is getting more and more difficult. Not only is the technical difficulty increased, but also the financial resources required to invest are also increased. The approval process for new drugs is strict. In the past, many companies could do it. There will be fewer and fewer companies that can do it later. Factors will contribute to the head effect, resulting in a strong and consistent situation.

\n?Thirdly, as far as domestic innovative drugs are concerned, they are new to both industry and capital markets.
Innovation drugs have huge uncertainty and strong professionalism in R\u0026D and marketing. Therefore, investment in innovative drugs in the capital market will also fluctuate. Sometimes it is too optimistic, and sometimes it may be too pessimistic. Therefore, for professional investors, research may bring considerable value, which is our long-term investment direction.

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China Securities Journal: How do you view the future investment opportunities in the A-share market?

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Zhou Haidong: We believe that due to the influence of monetary policy and external factors, the market's high probability this year will be disturbed between optimism and pessimism. When optimistic, emerging technology companies gain opportunities; in pessimism, consumer blue chips have opportunities. On the one hand, market sentiment has stabilized after the release of new regulations on asset management. In particular, the central bank has recently referred to “delevering leverage” as a “stabilizing leverage”, and the market has also interpreted it as a signal of loose capital. On the other hand, default information continues to weigh on the market. But overall, the current mood is still stable. I believe that this year's high probability is still a volatile market, and the trend of opportunity is hard to emerge.

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This year is relatively optimistic about the pharmaceutical sector

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Changes in the industry structure are conducive to the development of leading enterprises

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Not chasing the hot, not greedy, "cold"

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Zhou Haidong believes that value investment is a time-tested and effective investment method, but the selection of value stocks is a matter of opinion. It should not be easy to label some stocks as "value stocks" or "growth stocks," and it should not be easy to agree. Other people's judgments on company or stock-style labels. Only can truly distinguish value through careful and independent research and judgment on the fundamentals of the company.

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China Securities Journal: What is your style of transfer?

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Zhou Haidong: Adjusting positions in two cases: Transferred from the stock pool and transferred from more than 3000 A shares to the stock pool. At present, there are 40-50 stocks in my stock pool. These companies are scattered in the electronics, pharmaceutical, chemical, aviation and other industries. These stocks are adjusted less frequently. It is generally a single stock that has gone above and beyond the expectations and has falsified my judgment on them. I will choose to call in or call out these stocks. The adjustment from the stock pool to the portfolio is relatively more frequent, and I will increase or decrease the position according to the fluctuation of individual stocks. If you increase too much, you will lose part of your position. When you fall too much, you add part of it.

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China Securities Journal: You entered the industry from investment. How can you achieve rapid learning in the process of investment?

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Zhou Haidong: I think the most important thing for me is to be honest with myself, taking into account both principles and flexibility.

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My style is to have a greater tolerance for valuation. In other words, if everyone thinks that this company is too expensive from the valuation, but I found that based on my research its valuation is tenable, I will still choose this company. This is my style. But on the other side of this issue, I may be too insistent on my own judgment, leading to a slower retreat at the time of misjudgment. I think that a fund manager should only make adjustments to his position if he knows that he had previously falsified his company’s judgment. This is reflected in two responses to specific operations: I can find quality stocks overlooked by others and delay retreating due to oversight.

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China Securities Journal: Does your decision-making style have an impact on actual investment?

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Zhou Haidong: In 2016 I bought a pharmaceutical company. At that time, the market had a big disagreement with this company. The question of this company lies in the fact that this company has had some accidents. As a result, people have questioned the management of the company, the execution of the company, and the technical capabilities of the company. However, after our research, we believe that these fluctuations will not affect the financial status of the company. The company's profit will continue to improve. In addition, through our observations, it was discovered that after the accident, major shareholders of the company also actively increased their holdings, releasing a positive signal to the market. The key is that through our tracking of its research and development capabilities, we believe that these events are not enough to affect the company's medium and long-term development, and therefore hold firm. In December 2017, the company made significant technological progress. This progress is gradually being recognized by the market, and it is gradually redeeming its share price. Reflections afterwards because I insist on my own judgment and achieved better results.

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We have the same source of profit and loss. I also suffered some losses due to "obsession." In 2016 I also bought another company. At first, it was bought because it was cheap. In addition, the company made many commitments to the market. However, the development of the company in the later period was inconsistent with its initial commitment, and the performance was substantially lower than expected. The company itself has become complicated by its short-term blood transfusion through mergers and acquisitions. Afterwards, in fact, it should be gradually amended to do some lightening operations. But I considered that the reason I bought it initially was that it was cheap. This reason is still established at this time, so I did not lighten up my position in time. This is where I am adjusting, that is, to take into account both principle and flexibility, and strive to stop loss in time without retreating too early. This "degree" needs careful consideration and proper handling. Adherence to principle and lag in evacuation are two sides, but they need to be honest with the facts. If the decision style has affected the investment, you need to make adjustments.

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China Securities Journal: How to overcome this personality's decision-making tendency?

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Zhou Haidong: I think we must first realize that I tend to tilt when making decisions. When the facts are different from my thoughts, I need to think a little more. I guide myself to appropriately reduce the weight of the expected difference in decision-making. Investment will eventually return to the fundamentals of individual stocks. Good companies may not always be hidden in the corner. If everyone can see that the growth rate of the company's earnings has kept pace with market expectations, such companies also have configuration value. You shouldn’t be afraid to be at odds with others’ choices, nor should you be afraid to be consistent with the choices of others, or judge based on the company’s own research.

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China Securities Journal: How to Test Your Judgment?

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Zhou Haidong: This is a gradual accumulation process. The principle is still, only if my logic is falsified, I will adjust it. Market volatility will not be used as a basis for adjustments, but it will remind me to seriously examine whether I have missed or neglected. I made early mistakes that I paid too much attention to the financial status of the company and paid less attention to the company’s actual business condition. After all, whether the company's business can make money or not and whether it can continue to make money is the top priority. Sometimes even if the company has no problem with the financial statements at the moment, there are big problems in the business. These problems will be reflected in the stock price. I think there are two points that can be helpful in correcting the mistakes early: First, have their own core positions in tracking research , two is to see more company comparisons , this is a very good tool, because sometimes It's not necessarily logically wrong, it's just not as good as someone else.


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